The Three Laws of Consumer Electronics

[rakeshagrawal]

I caught this post by Michael Gartenberg (an analyst with Jupiter):

http://weblogs.jupiterresearch.com/a...es/016915.html

The full text:

I've said this before but it's worth repeating. Let's call it Gartenberg's Three Laws of Consumer Electronics.

1. There's a world wide market of 50,000 for any device sold to enthusiasts and early adopters.

2. If Gartenberg sees a product at a demo and doesn't offer his credit card for purchase immediately, the product is doomed.

3. Even if Gartenberg does offer his credit card, the product may well still be doomed as Gartenberg is part of the 50,000 enthusisasts that will buy (almost) anything.

(If you're in the area, come on over some time and I'll show you my collection.)

Getting the first 50,000 is a milestone. Getting 500,000 and 5,000,000 is where it matters. Enthusiasts won't get you there but influencers will.

What do you all think?

[MarcP]

My question to him is... Did you buy HD DVD or BluRay?

BTW, law #3 makes the whole thing irrelevant...

[fester]

agree. absolutely true.

look at tiny little swiftech vs thermaltake or vantec. Mr swifty (i forget the founders name) has been milking the 50000 units thoery for years but its taken so long that taiwan manufacturers have crushed all hope of recovery.

software is a similar beast i guess but once sunken costs are recovered and development stays ahead of market youre all set I think. just guessing here.

[queonda]

Has BTV hit these milestones?

[ClamsTheCat]

If someone made a low cost PC that is specialized to run a stripped version of windows and HDMI output then it would sell over 50k units

[rakeshagrawal]

I agree with the idea that there's an audience of 50,000 enthusiasts and early adopters for any given product. But it's definitely not the same 50,000 enthusiasts as the last statement implies.

I also think that this early adopter thing is largely a U.S. phenomena... Either people in other countries don't have the disposable income we do or they spend it on other things but other countries just don't seem have the early adopter class that we have here in the States. Though, maybe Japan does?

[Rich A]

Originally Posted by ClamsTheCat

If someone made a low cost PC that is specialized to run a stripped version of windows and HDMI output then it would sell over 50k units

Amen ...